11 January 2022 – To answer the question whether COVID-19 will lead to excess mortality, we are monitoring the situation with an ad-hoc evaluation of provisional death figures in Germany. In April 2020, mortality figures were markedly higher than the median across previous years. At the same time, an increase in the number of COVID-19 related deaths was recorded (source: Robert Koch Institute (RKI)). In August deaths were up again due to a heat wave. The death figures for September, too, were somewhat higher than the median of previous years. Another distinct increase beyond the median was observed as from the second half of October 2020. At the same time, COVID-19 deaths were up, too. Record highs were observed shortly before the turn of the year (2020/2021), while both the number of COVID-19 deaths and the difference of total deaths from the median of the previous years again declined at the beginning of 2021. In February and March, death figures were below the median of the previous years. From April to August, they were mostly slightly above the median. From September to the beginning of December, this difference was on an upward trend compared with the previous months, while it declined again slightly afterwards. The number of COVID-19 deaths rose significantly as of mid-October and reached an interim maximum at the beginning of December, too.

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